Establishing session…

(U) Security conditions remain permissive for extremist and criminal actors due to weak governance, military overstretch, and economic stress.

(S//REL TO USA, FVEY) Al-Shabaab maintains operational resilience in Somalia, sustaining complex attacks while expanding financial and facilitation networks regionally.

(C//REL TO USA, FVEY) Russian-linked security and commercial actors continue operating in the Sahel, leveraging instability to secure access, resources, and influence.

(S//REL TO USA, FVEY) Area remains volatile with overlapping conflicts and persistent proxy activity increasing escalation risk.

(S//REL TO USA, FVEY) Iranian-aligned militias continue calibrated harassment operations against U.S. and partner interests, emphasizing UAVs, rockets, and information operations.

(S//REL TO USA, FVEY) Maritime insecurity persists in key transit corridors due to proxy activity and regional conflict dynamics.

(S//REL TO USA, FVEY) Europe remains under sustained hybrid pressure primarily from the Russian Federation, targeting political cohesion, economic resilience, and security infrastructure.

(S//REL TO USA, FVEY) Russia continues combining military signaling with cyber operations, disinformation, and use of criminal intermediaries to exert influence.

(C//REL TO USA, FVEY) Organized crime networks remain active in logistics facilitation, sanctions evasion, and low-visibility influence support, particularly in Eastern and Northern Europe.

(S//REL TO USA, FVEY) Indo-Pacific remains the primary theater for long-term strategic competition.

(S//REL TO USA, FVEY) PRC continues gray-zone coercive activity around Taiwan and in the South China Sea, emphasizing persistent presence and normalization of pressure.

(S//REL TO USA, FVEY) INDOPACOM remains the most likely theater for strategic miscalculation with global consequences.

(U) Homeland security conditions remain stable but face persistent non-state challenges.

(C//FOUO) Transnational criminal organizations continue exploiting border, logistics, and financial vulnerabilities using advanced communications and commercial technologies.

(U) No credible indicators of imminent state-sponsored kinetic threats to the homeland this period.

(S//REL TO USA, FVEY) South America remains a permissive environment for criminal and political convergence due to economic stress, corruption, and uneven governance.

(S//REL TO USA, FVEY) Transnational criminal organizations continue diversifying into illegal mining, fuel theft, maritime trafficking, and financial crime.

(C//REL TO USA, FVEY) External state actors exploit infrastructure investment, energy projects, and information operations to gain strategic access.

(S//REL TO USA, FVEY) Space is increasingly contested as a strategic domain.

(S//REL TO USA, FVEY) Russia and China continue developing counter-space capabilities, including jamming, cyber, and proximity operations.

(C//REL TO USA, FVEY) Growing orbital congestion complicates attribution and increases risk to commercial and military systems.